三只松鼠24Q4预告：百亿目标顺利实现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company successfully achieved its revenue target of 10 billion yuan in 2024 through multiple reforms in products, channels, supply chain, and organization. The online "D+N" strategy and offline distribution reforms are expected to continue in 2025, with additional revenue growth anticipated from the acquisition of Ai Zhe Kou and Ai Ling Shi, which will enter the hard discount sector [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - For Q4 2024, the company expects revenue between 3.031 billion and 3.631 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.68% to 43.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 59 million and 79 million yuan, with a growth of 17.21% to 57.08% [6][9]. - For the full year 2024, the expected revenue is between 10.2 billion and 10.8 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 43.37% to 51.80%. The net profit is forecasted to be between 400 million and 420 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 81.99% to 91.09% [6][9]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 10.407 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 407 million yuan, showing an increase of 85.2% [7][9]. - The report indicates that the company’s Q4 2024 net profit margin is expected to be 2.07%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the full-year net profit margin is projected to be 3.90%, up by 0.82 percentage points [6][9]. Market Performance - The company’s stock closed at 35.68 yuan, with a market capitalization of 143 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 100 billion yuan [3][6]. - The stock has shown significant performance, with a 12-month high of 42.88 yuan and a low of 14.54 yuan [3]. Brand Development - The company has effectively advanced its supply chain and multi-brand strategy, with the brand "Xiao Lu Lan Lan" achieving a target of 1 billion yuan and accelerating the development of new brands such as "Chao Da Wan" and "Dong Fang Yan Jiu Sheng" [6][9].