Three Squirrels(300783) Huaan Securities·2025-01-22 05:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6][7]. Core Views - The company successfully achieved its revenue target of 10 billion yuan in 2024 through multiple reforms in products, channels, supply chain, and organization. The online "D+N" strategy and offline distribution reforms are expected to continue in 2025, with additional revenue growth anticipated from the acquisition of Ai Zhe Kou and Ai Ling Shi, which will enter the hard discount sector [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - For Q4 2024, the company expects revenue between 3.031 billion and 3.631 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.68% to 43.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 59 million and 79 million yuan, with a growth of 17.21% to 57.08% [6]. - For the full year 2024, the expected revenue is between 10.2 billion and 10.8 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 43.37% to 51.80%. The net profit is forecasted to be between 400 million and 420 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 81.99% to 91.09% [6][9]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s Q4 revenue is expected to exceed market expectations, with the lower limit of annual revenue already reaching the 10 billion yuan target. The anticipated revenue growth for Q4 is driven by Douyin and offline channels, with online revenue growth estimated at around 25% year-on-year, primarily fueled by Douyin [6][9]. - The company’s profitability is also expected to improve, with a projected net profit margin of 2.07% for Q4 2024, up from the previous year. The full-year net profit margin is expected to reach 3.90%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year [6][9]. Brand Performance - The company has effectively advanced its supply chain and all-channel reforms, with its multi-brand strategy showing initial success. The brand Xiao Lu Lan Lan has achieved a target of 1 billion yuan and is accelerating the development of new brands [6][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 10.407 billion, 13.891 billion, and 17.745 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.3%, 33.5%, and 27.7% [7][9]. - The expected net profit for the same years is 407 million, 580 million, and 860 million yuan, with growth rates of 85.2%, 42.6%, and 48.3% [7][9]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 35, 25, and 17 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][9].