天山铝业：量价齐升创佳绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.79%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 4.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.41% [6] - The increase in profits is primarily driven by the rising prices of alumina, with the average price in Henan province showing a steady upward trend throughout 2024 [6] - The company has a comprehensive industrial chain layout, which allows it to maintain profitability even with recent declines in alumina prices [6] Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is reported at 28.975 billion yuan, with projections of 34.637 billion yuan for 2024 and 34.274 billion yuan for 2025 [9] - The net profit for 2023 was 2.205 billion yuan, with forecasts of 4.452 billion yuan for 2024 and 4.862 billion yuan for 2025 [9] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase from 14.1% in 2023 to 20.0% in 2024, and then slightly decrease to 20.9% by 2026 [9] Market and Project Developments - The company has completed a share acquisition of a local mining company in Guinea, securing exclusive purchasing rights for alumina products with a production capacity of approximately 6 million tons per year [6] - Ongoing projects in Guangxi and Indonesia are progressing, with approvals for exploration and mining activities being expedited [6]