华峰化学：规模效应典范，聚氨酯制品标杆

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [6] Core Views - The company leverages low costs to establish strong competitive barriers in the spandex and adipic acid sectors, enhancing its cost advantages through scale expansion and technological improvements, demonstrating strong profitability resilience even during downturns [3][12][17] - The spandex business's counter-cyclical low-cost expansion further solidifies its leading position, and with the continuous expansion of polyurethane product categories, the company is expected to achieve economies of scale and sustained growth [12][19] - The company is positioned as a comprehensive giant in the polyurethane industry, with significant production capacities and ongoing projects to enhance its market presence [13][42] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global leader in the spandex industry and a key player in the polyurethane sector, with production capacities for spandex, polyurethane raw materials, and adipic acid ranking first in the country [27][42] - The company has two main production bases located in Zhejiang and Chongqing, with a total spandex capacity of 32.5 million tons and ongoing projects to increase production [40][42] Spandex and Adipic Acid Business - The spandex business benefits from a growing preference for comfort and fashion, with a CAGR of 9.3% from 2017 to 2023, and the industry concentration is expected to rise from 61% in 2019 to 80% in 2024 [14][52] - The company holds approximately 24% of the spandex market share, benefiting from scale, technology, and raw material advantages, which enhance its profitability during downturns [14][52] - The adipic acid sector is characterized by high concentration and improving demand driven by downstream nylon and polyurethane applications, with the company being the largest producer globally [14][52] Polyurethane Products - The polyurethane raw materials business is expected to grow steadily, with the company holding a market share of nearly 65% in the domestic market, benefiting from high bargaining power within the industry [12][19] - The company is actively expanding into synthetic leather and thermoplastic polyurethane elastomers, which will further enhance its growth potential in the polyurethane sector [12][19] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 282 billion, 293 billion, and 317 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 7%, 4%, and 8% [19] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 26 billion, 35 billion, and 40 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 5%, 34%, and 14% [19] - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 0.52, 0.71, and 0.81 yuan per share from 2024 to 2026, with a 3-year CAGR of 17% [19]