社服与消费视角点评24年12月国内宏观数据：24年经济稳定修复，12月社零增速环比小幅提升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][26]. Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery in 2024 is stable, with a GDP growth of 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the development target. The total retail sales of consumer goods in December reached 4.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [4][3]. - The service industry PMI in December was 52.0%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month. The overall economic operation is stable, with various consumption categories showing signs of recovery [4][3]. - Per capita disposable income and consumption expenditure for residents increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with rural residents experiencing higher growth rates than urban residents [4][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - In Q4 2024, GDP reached 37.37 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%. The total retail sales for the year amounted to 48.79 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [4][3]. - The retail sales growth in Q4 was supported by policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods, contributing approximately 1 percentage point to the total retail sales growth [4][3]. Consumer Confidence and Spending - The average urban unemployment rate for the year was 5.1%, slightly below the target of 5.5%. However, consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 86.20, indicating a need for improvement [4][3]. - The top three categories for year-on-year growth in consumption were other goods and services, education and cultural entertainment, and transportation and communication [4][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and business travel, such as Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism. Other recommended companies include Tianmuhu, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and various hotel chains [3][4].