可转债2024年回顾与2025年展望：否极泰来之后，2025年，转债仍需顺势而为

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the convertible bond market in 2024 and 2025 Core Insights - In 2024, the issuance of new convertible bonds is expected to decline significantly due to stringent refinancing policies, with the total issuance dropping to 36.757 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 75% compared to the previous year [6][10] - The convertible bond market is anticipated to experience fluctuations in 2025, with external and internal economic pressures continuing to impact performance, although a recovery trend may begin to emerge in the fourth quarter [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is likely to see a reduction in outstanding convertible bonds by approximately 100 billion yuan in 2025 due to a combination of new issuances and redemptions [2] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Convertible Bond Market Review - The refinancing policy remains strict, leading to a significant reduction in the willingness of listed companies to issue convertible bonds, resulting in only 41 bonds being issued in 2024, the lowest since 2017 [6][10] - The total issuance scale for 2024 is 36.757 billion yuan, with an average issuance size of 8.97 million yuan per bond, down from 10.17 million yuan in 2023 [6][10] - The report notes that private enterprises dominate the issuance, contributing over 90% of the total, while state-owned enterprises see a sharp decline in issuance [10][11] 2. 2025 Outlook - The expected issuance of new convertible bonds in 2025 is around 60 billion yuan, with a significant number of bonds reaching maturity and being redeemed [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and credit risks, which could impact the convertible bond market's performance [2] - The sectors expected to perform well include technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and high-dividend stocks, driven by domestic demand policies [2] 3. Market Performance - The convertible bond market experienced a significant rebound in the fourth quarter of 2024, following a series of supportive policies that restored market confidence [25][30] - The report outlines four phases of market performance throughout 2024, highlighting the volatility and eventual recovery driven by policy interventions [25][30] - The banking sector's convertible bonds showed strong performance, with an average increase of over 13%, outperforming other sectors [36]