中观看实体系列之四：产能利用率，还会再提升么？

Group 1: Current Capacity Cycle Position - China has experienced at least three capacity cycles since 1998, spanning 1998-2008, 2009-2015, and 2016-present[2] - The current cycle is nearing its end, with equipment investment growth showing signs of recovery, particularly due to policies promoting equipment updates and replacements[2] - The capital expenditure growth of listed companies is currently at -4.2%, close to historical lows, indicating a bottoming phase[2] Group 2: Comparison with the US Capacity Cycle - Since 1960, the US has undergone at least eight capacity cycles, with the average cycle lasting around eight years[25] - China's capacity cycles have often led those in the US, particularly since joining the WTO in 2001, with the current cycle starting in 2016 being approximately one month ahead of the US[25] - The synchronization of capacity cycles between China and the US has increased post-2008 financial crisis, but China's policies have often provided a quicker response to market changes[28] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in the Capacity Cycle - Industries such as chemical fibers, textiles, steel, and chemicals are entering a new capacity cycle, with capacity utilization rates rising to historical highs, e.g., chemical fibers at 84.8% and chemicals at 39.4%[41] - The recovery in capacity utilization is expected to enhance profitability, particularly benefiting cyclical industries like home appliances and food and beverage sectors due to upcoming policies promoting consumption[41] - Historical data shows that cyclical industries typically achieve positive excess returns within one year of a capacity cycle's initiation, with home appliances achieving returns of 49.8% and 22.7% in previous cycles[46]