CNOOC(600938) 光大证券·2025-01-23 06:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1] Core Views - High capital expenditure supports steady production growth and enhances dividend payout, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [1][10] - The company aims to achieve a net production target of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [8] - CNOOC plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, an increase from the previous 40% [10] Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure and Production - CNOOC's capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at 132 billion yuan, with a budget of 125-135 billion yuan for 2025, focusing on exploration (61%), development (20%), and production (16%) [6] - The company will continue to prioritize the discovery of large and medium-sized oil and gas fields, with a focus on stabilizing production in Bohai and expanding in South China Sea and East China Sea [7] Production Growth and Efficiency - The company expects to complete a net production of approximately 720 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, with a target of 760-780 million barrels in 2025, and further growth projected for 2026 and 2027 [8] - Key domestic projects include the development of the Kenli 10-2 oilfield group and the Wenchang 9-7 oilfield, while overseas projects include the Guyana Uaru project [9] Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - CNOOC's net profit is forecasted to be 145.7 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 158.2 billion yuan in 2025, and 163.9 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.06, 3.33, and 3.45 yuan per share [12] - The company emphasizes a stable high dividend policy, enhancing its investment value in a low-interest-rate environment [10]