CSSC Holdings(600150) 诚通证券·2025-01-24 01:55Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - China Shipbuilding is positioned as a leading enterprise in both military and civilian shipbuilding under the China Shipbuilding Group, with a market share of approximately 13.32% in the domestic new shipbuilding market as of 2024 [1]. - The company has seen significant improvements in revenue and profitability due to the high demand in the shipbuilding industry, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency [1][10]. - The ongoing restructuring with China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry is expected to enhance the company's market share to approximately 22.52% post-completion [1]. Company Overview - China Shipbuilding is the core listed company of the China Shipbuilding Group, focusing on military and civilian products [1]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring since the merger in 2019, leading to a specialization in shipbuilding and repair, with over 95% of its business now in this area [1][27]. - The company is actively integrating assets and businesses to eliminate competition within the group [1][40]. Industry Analysis - The shipping market is experiencing high demand across various segments, with oil tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships making up 86.11% of the global fleet by capacity [45]. - The global shipbuilding market is highly active, with significant growth in new orders and hand-held orders, particularly in China, which accounted for 76.94% of new orders by DWT in 2024 [4][68]. - The report highlights a strong correlation between global GDP growth and international shipping demand, predicting a 2.4% annual growth in shipping trade volume from 2025 to 2029 [74]. Demand Side - Long-term demand is driven by stable international trade, with projections indicating an average annual demand for new ships of 6.12 million DWT under optimistic scenarios [2][79]. - The aging fleet is expected to create a predictable cycle of replacement demand, with a peak in replacement needs anticipated between 2035 and 2039 [81]. - Short-term demand is influenced by geopolitical events, particularly the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, which has increased shipping distances and demand [3][97]. Supply Side - China's share in the global shipbuilding market continues to rise, with significant increases in new orders and hand-held orders, indicating a competitive advantage over traditional shipbuilding nations like South Korea and Japan [4][101]. - The domestic shipbuilding landscape is expected to consolidate further, with China Shipbuilding Group aiming to optimize capacity and enhance competitiveness [5][107]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 826.59 billion, 925.07 billion, and 1,013.80 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.42 billion, 75.41 billion, and 95.01 billion yuan [12][138]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in profitability, with net profit growth rates of 29.9%, 96.3%, and 26.0% for the same period [12][142].