中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20250124

Key Points - The report highlights that the RMB exchange rate stabilization target for 2024 has been successfully achieved, but there is increasing pressure for exchange rate adjustments [4] - In 2024, cross-border capital flows shifted from a net outflow in the previous year to a net inflow, primarily due to increased foreign currency payment surpluses and merchandise trade payment surpluses [4] - Despite a third consecutive year of net outflows in securities investments, the outflow pressure remains controllable, with foreign capital reducing stock holdings but continuing to increase holdings in RMB-denominated bonds [4] - The report indicates that the surplus in banks' foreign currency payments has increased, but the motivation for currency purchases in the market has also risen, leading to an increase in banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales deficits [4] - The report notes that the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between China and the US, as well as the deepening of the US-China interest rate spread [4] - Under a moderately accommodative monetary policy framework, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable [4]