2025年第一季度市场策略报告：宏观政策更加积极有为，中长期机会继续显现

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is approaching a "secondary bottom," indicating that medium to long-term opportunities continue to emerge [5][24][52] - The overall A-share market is expected to stabilize after a healthy adjustment, with the index likely to show a strong oscillation in the first quarter of 2025 [5][24][52] - The valuation of the market is low, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the Wind All A Index at 17.72 times, which is below the historical average [19][20] Group 2: Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to remain resilient in the first quarter of 2025, with the composite PMI above the expansion threshold [5][54] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience, with a reduced risk of a "hard landing," supported by consumer confidence and investment sentiment [5][54][58] - Inflation risks in the U.S. are increasing, with the Federal Reserve adjusting its core PCE forecasts upward [5][54][71] Group 3: Chinese Economic Policy - The macroeconomic policy in China is expected to become more proactive, with GDP growth projected around 5% for 2025 [5][88][91] - Investment policies are anticipated to strengthen, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing, with a projected increase in government deficit rates [5][93][118] - Consumption policies will focus on expanding domestic demand, with an emphasis on boosting consumer spending [5][143][144] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Focus on structural opportunities in technology and self-sufficiency sectors, including semiconductors and defense industries [5][165] - Attention to consumer sectors supported by policy, such as electronics and food and beverage industries, for valuation recovery opportunities [5][165] - High-dividend sectors like banking and coal are expected to maintain value for low-cost allocations, despite potential short-term style shifts [5][165] Group 5: Sector Performance - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to lead in performance due to favorable policies and market sentiment [5][25][35] - High-end equipment manufacturing is also projected to perform well, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements [5][25][35] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and improving sales [5][97][110]