Sanmei(603379) 国信证券·2025-01-24 05:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 700 million to 810 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 151% to 191% [2][4] - The company is entering the quota year for the third-generation refrigerants, with supply constraints leading to price increases and improved profitability for its products [2][4] - The long-term outlook for the refrigerant industry remains positive due to structural reforms and increasing demand, particularly in the air conditioning sector [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2024 is between 700 million and 810 million yuan, with a growth rate of 150.9% to 191.0% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 670 million and 780 million yuan, with a growth of 221.3% to 274.9% [2][4] - For the fourth quarter of 2024, the estimated net profit is between 139 million and 249 million yuan [2][4] Market Dynamics - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a quota year, which is expected to tighten supply and increase prices. The prices of mainstream refrigerants have been rising significantly, with R22, R32, R134a, and R143a showing substantial year-on-year increases [3][9] - As of January 20, 2025, the prices for R22, R32, R134a, and R143a have increased by 74%, 121%, 52%, and -8% respectively compared to the same period in 2024 [9][14] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases in refrigerants and plans to expand into new materials and renewable energy sectors [3][15] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 44.08 billion, 55.02 billion, and 57.96 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 7.88 billion, 11.38 billion, and 13.35 billion yuan [3][15]