2025年基础化工策略报告：布局行业景气底部，静待产业升级

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a recovery in industry profits in 2025, driven by increased fiscal policy support and a potential easing of international geopolitical tensions, which may lower costs for the chemical industry [7][81] - The report highlights two key investment directions: the polyester filament industry is expected to see improved pricing power for leading companies, while the tire industry is poised for recovery as cost pressures ease and demand strengthens [7][81] Summary by Sections Industry Bottoming Out - The chemical industry is currently in a capacity clearing phase, with price competition hindering profit recovery [10] - The Shenyuan Chemical Index increased by 0.65% in 2024, underperforming major market indices [10] Polyester Industry Dynamics - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a shift towards higher concentration, which is expected to enhance the pricing power of leading firms [25] - The report notes that the average profit margin for the polyester filament industry has been stable, with a historical average of around 3.3% [28] Tire Industry Outlook - The tire industry is witnessing a decline in raw material prices, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for manufacturers [55] - Domestic demand for tires is gradually recovering, supported by a rebound in the automotive sector, with total vehicle sales in China reaching 27.93 million units, a 3.90% year-on-year increase [64] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester filament sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Xinfengming, as well as tire manufacturers like Linglong Tire and Senqilin, due to their potential for profit recovery and market share growth [81]