CNOOC(600938) 申万宏源·2025-01-24 09:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has released its 2025 operational strategy, projecting stable production growth and an increase in dividend payout ratio [1][6] - The expected net production for 2024 is approximately 720 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a target of 760-780 million barrels for 2025 [6] - The company aims for a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the years 2025-2027, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase from the previous target [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 482,774 for 2024, 496,913 for 2025, and 514,244 for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.9%, 2.9%, and 3.5% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is forecasted at 150,606 for 2024, 155,561 for 2025, and 160,123 for 2026, with growth rates of 21.6%, 3.3%, and 2.9% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (in yuan) are expected to be 3.17 for 2024, 3.27 for 2025, and 3.37 for 2026 [2] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 50.5% for 2024, increasing slightly to 51.0% by 2026 [2] Market Data - As of January 23, 2025, the closing price is 27.60 yuan, with a market capitalization of 78,435 million yuan [3] - The dividend yield is reported at 4.63% based on the most recent dividend announcements [3] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 9 for 2024, decreasing to 8 for both 2025 and 2026 [2][3] Production and Capital Expenditure - The company plans to maintain high levels of capital expenditure, with an estimated 1,320 billion yuan for 2024 and a budget of 1,250-1,350 billion yuan for 2025 [6] - The capital expenditure will focus on exploration, development, and production, with respective allocations of approximately 16%, 61%, and 20% [6] Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with an increased dividend payout ratio reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [6] - The previous dividend payout ratio was set at no less than 40%, now increased to 45% for the upcoming years [6] Oil Price Outlook - The report anticipates Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate between 60-80 USD in 2025, providing strong support for the company's performance [6] - The company is expected to benefit from rising production levels amidst a tightening oil supply-demand balance [6] Investment Analysis Opinion - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are maintained at 150.6 billion, 155.6 billion, and 160.1 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 9X, 8X, and 8X [6]