CHOW TAI FOOK(01929) 信达证券·2025-01-24 11:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a cautious outlook based on the performance metrics discussed [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's retail value for FY2025Q3 decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, with mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau markets showing declines of 13.0% and 20.4% respectively [1]. - The same-store sales decline in mainland China narrowed sequentially, with a year-on-year drop of 16.1% and a same-store sales volume decrease of 27.4% [2]. - The company closed 261 stores in mainland China, bringing the total to 6,685 stores as of December 31, 2024 [2]. - In the Hong Kong and Macau markets, same-store sales fell by 21.3%, with Hong Kong down 16.9% and Macau down 35.3% [3]. - Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce contributed 6.9% to retail value in mainland China, with a volume contribution of 16.1% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for FY2025 to FY2027 are estimated at HKD 89.5 billion, HKD 91.5 billion, and HKD 93.8 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 18% in FY2025, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be HKD 5.948 billion in FY2025, with a slight recovery to HKD 6.120 billion in FY2026 and HKD 6.331 billion in FY2027 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 0.60, HKD 0.61, and HKD 0.63 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The high gold prices have continued to impact consumer sentiment, but the stabilization of gold prices and product optimization measures have helped to reduce the same-store sales decline [2]. - The company opened two new concept stores in mainland China during FY2025Q3, achieving above-average sales performance [2]. - The contribution of franchise stores to retail value in mainland China increased slightly to 69.7% in FY2025Q3 [2]. Regional Performance - In mainland China, the same-store sales for gold and embedded products fell by 15.3% and 20.3% respectively [2]. - The Hong Kong and Macau markets are experiencing shifts in consumer behavior, with a notable decline in gold jewelry sales [3]. - The company has expanded its international presence by opening five new retail stores in Thailand, Malaysia, Japan, and Los Angeles [3].