好未来：学习机旺季带动收入超预期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of $13.30, indicating a potential upside of 20.1$11.07 [2][5][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that TAL's revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for quality education services and sales of learning machines, with a revenue of $606 million in Q3 FY25, representing a 62$1,020 million - FY2024: $1,490 million - FY2025E:$2,240 million - FY2026E: $2,815 million - FY2027E:$3,307 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at -76.8% for FY2023, 46.2% for FY2024, and 50.3% for FY2025E [4][17]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in FY2024 with $85 million, reaching$193 million in FY2025E and $310 million in FY2026E [4][17]. - The report anticipates a Non-GAAP net profit of$39 million for Q3 FY25, which is better than market expectations [3][9]. Market Position - TAL's market share in online sales of learning machines reached 28% in December, making it the top seller in this category [3][9]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and brand reputation through continuous innovation and marketing strategies [3][9]. Valuation - The report maintains a conservative growth expectation for learning machine sales, projecting mid-to-high single-digit growth, while educational services are expected to grow at approximately 35% in FY2026 and 20% in FY2027 [3][9]. - The target price adjustment to $13.30 is based on a 25x price-to-earnings ratio for FY2026 and a 1x price-to-sales ratio for learning machines [3][9].