全球碳市场现状及发展趋势：碳定价是推广变革性气候解决方案重要工具

Group 1: Core Insights - Carbon pricing is a crucial tool for promoting transformative climate solutions and limiting global warming to specific levels through significant reductions in CO2 emissions [3][4]. - The current global carbon market covers 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with 36 operational carbon markets and 22 jurisdictions in various stages of consideration and policy development [3][4]. - The average carbon price in 2023 shows that about two-thirds of carbon markets have prices below $10, while approximately one-sixth have prices between$10 and $70, and another one-sixth have prices above$70 [3][4]. Group 2: Global Carbon Market Status - The global carbon market has expanded significantly since its inception, with the proportion of emissions covered increasing threefold since the EU carbon market started in 2005 [35][36]. - The carbon market is categorized into voluntary and compliance markets, with compliance markets further divided into carbon offset credit mechanisms and emissions trading systems (ETS) [29][30]. - The carbon market's development is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, regulatory changes, and the interaction with other climate and energy policies [39][40]. Group 3: Future Trends and Projections - The carbon market is expected to see an expansion in industry coverage, stricter total cap settings, and a shift from free allocation of allowances to auctioning [45][46]. - Predictions for carbon prices in 2030 suggest a range of $226-385 per ton of CO2 for limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C and$63-127 per ton for limiting it to 2°C [49][50]. - The EU carbon market has experienced significant price fluctuations since its establishment, with prices rising sharply in recent years, reaching historical highs [52][53]. Group 4: China's Carbon Market Development - China's carbon market has evolved through three phases, with the current phase featuring a national carbon trading market alongside regional markets [56][58]. - The national carbon market covers 2,257 key emission units, accounting for over 40% of the country's CO2 emissions, making it the largest market for greenhouse gas emissions globally [64][65]. - The voluntary carbon market in China is set to launch in January 2024, complementing the existing mandatory trading system and enhancing the overall carbon pricing mechanism [56][58].