Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue for the year is expected to be approximately 14.2 billion, with profits likely at the upper limit of the forecast at 1.1 billion, both in line with expectations [7] - For Q4, revenue is projected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit expected to increase by 19% year-on-year, maintaining a non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.4% [8] - The company anticipates a strong performance in the two-wheeler segment in 2024, with new product launches and store expansions expected to drive growth in 2025 [9] Revenue Analysis - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 14.2 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 39% [12] - The two-wheeler segment is projected to meet a target of 2.5 million units for the year, with Q4 expected to contribute around 400,000 units [11] - The all-terrain vehicle segment is expected to generate approximately 1 billion in revenue for the year, with Q4 revenue around 250 million [11] Profit Analysis - The forecast for 2024-2026 includes a non-GAAP net profit of 1.1 billion, 1.6 billion, and 2.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 85%, 45%, and 43% [9] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast, with expected non-GAAP net profit margins improving in the long term due to new product contributions [9] Financial Metrics - The company’s projected financial metrics for 2024 include a gross margin of 28.4%, a return on equity (ROE) of 17.2%, and earnings per share (EPS) of 15.45 yuan [12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 34 for 2024, decreasing to 17 by 2026 [12]
九号公司：2024Q4预告点评：景气延续符合预期