Zhongtai Cryogenic(300435) 国信证券·2025-01-27 06:00Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company [7][45]. Core Views - The company has shown effective overseas expansion, with significant recognition from major clients such as Saudi Aramco and Air Products [2][4]. - The Xinjiang coal chemical project is expected to open up a substantial incremental market, benefiting the company significantly [3][5]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with a notable increase in high-margin overseas orders, which is projected to drive faster growth in performance [4][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.67%, and a net profit of 189 million yuan, down 26.99% year-on-year [1]. - The company anticipates a net loss of 60 to 85 million yuan for 2024, primarily due to unfavorable pricing in the gas segment and reduced demand from downstream customers [1][14]. - The company’s revenue from 2018 to 2023 grew at a CAGR of 38.65%, while net profit grew at a CAGR of 38.93% [2][14]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.784 billion yuan, 3.376 billion yuan, and 3.931 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of -8.64%, +21.27%, and +16.43% [31][33]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are -67 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 478 million yuan, indicating a return to profitability in 2025 [33][34]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leading player in the chemical energy deep cold separation technology sector, focusing on a dual-engine model of "equipment manufacturing + gas operation" [2][11]. - The company has successfully entered the international market, becoming a qualified supplier for renowned engineering firms, which enhances its market position [4][12]. - The company’s product offerings include a range of high-quality equipment used in petrochemical, coal chemical, and hydrogen energy industries, with some products reaching world-class standards [2][11]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range of 12.5 to 15.5 yuan per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 12-15x for 2025 [5][45]. - The absolute valuation method suggests a fair value of 16.54 yuan per share based on the company's cash flow projections [36][43].