Zhongtai Cryogenic(300435) 国信证券·2025-01-27 08:09Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company [7][45]. Core Views - The company has shown effective overseas expansion, with significant recognition from major clients such as Saudi Aramco and Air Products [2][4]. - The Xinjiang coal chemical project is expected to open up a substantial incremental market, benefiting the company significantly [3][5]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with a notable increase in high-margin overseas orders, which is anticipated to drive faster growth in performance [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.67%, and a net profit of 189 million yuan, down 26.99% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects a net profit loss of 60-85 million yuan for 2024, primarily due to unfavorable pricing in the gas sector and reduced demand from downstream customers [1][14]. - The company’s revenue from 2018 to 2023 grew at a CAGR of 38.65%, while net profit grew at a CAGR of 38.93% [2][14]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates in the chemical energy deep cold separation technology sector, focusing on a dual-engine model of "equipment manufacturing + gas operation" [2][11]. - The company has established a strong presence in the overseas market, with a significant increase in export orders from 107 million yuan in 2022 to 467 million yuan in 2023 [4][5]. - The company’s core products are recognized as world-class, particularly in the petrochemical, coal chemical, and hydrogen energy sectors [2][11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing development of coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, with potential equipment investments estimated between 250-400 billion yuan [3][5]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are expected to be -67 million, 400 million, and 479 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of -68, 11, and 9 [5][33]. - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range of 12.5-15.5 yuan for the stock, based on future earnings projections [5][45].