房地产行业2024年12月月报：12月楼市收官同环比均正增长；全年新房成交同比下降，二手房成交同比持续增长

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1][2][3] Core Insights - December saw positive growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area reaching 1,890.9 million square meters, up 22.5% month-on-month and 28.9% year-on-year [11][12][13] - The overall new housing transaction scale for 2024 is expected to decline by 19.9% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions are projected to grow by 10% [34][35] - The report highlights a trend of "low base + year-end push by developers + continued policy support" contributing to the growth in December [11][12][26] New Housing Transactions - In December, new housing transaction area in first-tier cities increased by 34.8% year-on-year, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen showing significant month-on-month growth [12][18] - The overall new housing transaction area for 2024 in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities decreased by 12.5%, 21.9%, and 23.8% respectively [21][22][23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - December second-hand housing transactions saw a year-on-year increase of 76.0%, marking the seventh consecutive month of positive growth [26][27] - First-tier cities outperformed second and third/fourth-tier cities in terms of year-on-year growth rates for second-hand housing transactions [27][34] Inventory and Absorption - As of December 2024, new housing inventory in 12 tracked cities decreased by 1.3% month-on-month and 12.6% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 14.3 months [42][43][50] - The average opening absorption rate in key cities remained stable at 40% [58][60] Land Market - December saw a significant increase in land transaction volume, with a 97.5% month-on-month rise, although the year-on-year figure still showed a decline of 7.8% [62][63] - The average land premium rate for residential land in December was 13.1%, indicating strong competition for prime land parcels [78][79] Developer Performance - In December, the top 100 developers reported a month-on-month sales increase of 22.5%, with total sales reaching 4,727 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [132][140] - The overall sales for 2024 are expected to decline by 30.3% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in the number of developers exceeding 100 billion yuan in sales [140][141] Financing and Debt Maturity - The total financing scale for the real estate industry in December was 676 billion yuan, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase, although still at a low absolute level [168][171] - The total debt maturity for 2025 is projected at 7,746 billion yuan, slightly higher than in 2024 [176][177] Policy Outlook - The report indicates that 2024 was a pivotal year for policy adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market in 2025 [178][179] - Key policy measures include promoting the renovation of old housing and optimizing restrictive policies in first-tier cities [185][188] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with strong market positions in first and second-tier cities, as well as those showing significant improvements in sales and land acquisition [198][199]