华鲁恒升：深度跟踪：行业筑底，规划新方向

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected revenue growth and profit improvement in the coming years [5][124]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in gasification, with a diversified product portfolio including urea, acetic acid, organic amines, adipic acid, and caprolactam, which helps mitigate risks associated with single product dependency [1][13]. - The TDI project planned at the Jingzhou base, with an investment of 6.9837 billion RMB, aims to enhance the company's competitive edge in a high-barrier industry [2][36]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability for most products as they have reached a bottom price level, with limited downside risk [5][124]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has developed a diversified product range through coal gasification, including major sectors like fertilizers, organic amines, and new materials, enhancing its resilience against market fluctuations [1][13][16]. TDI Project Analysis - The TDI industry has high barriers to entry due to production technology and regulatory requirements, with the company leveraging its strengths in process optimization and cost control to enhance efficiency [2][22][36]. - The TDI project includes a comprehensive supply chain setup, which is expected to provide cost advantages and improve investment efficiency [2][36]. Industry Analysis - Urea prices are currently supported by cost factors, with limited room for further declines, while the industry is expected to stabilize in the coming years [4][68]. - The organic amine market is facing challenges due to stagnant demand, necessitating supply-side adjustments for profitability [4][78]. - Acetic acid production is projected to increase significantly, leading to potential supply pressures in the market [4][87]. - The adipic acid sector is experiencing a downturn, with many companies operating at a loss due to oversupply [4][103]. - Caprolactam production is under pressure from rising raw material costs, impacting profit margins [4][118]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 34.06 billion, 38.77 billion, and 42.96 billion RMB, with net profits of 3.81 billion, 4.36 billion, and 5.11 billion RMB respectively [5][124]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 1.80, 2.06, and 2.41 RMB, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [5][124].