PMI点评（2025.1）：PMI开年走低，主因春节提前和出口风险

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for January 2025 dropped significantly to 49.1, a decrease of 1.0, falling below the expansion threshold due to the early Spring Festival and increased export risks [1] - The production index fell to 49.8, the lowest in nearly 20 months, primarily due to employees returning home for the Spring Festival, which weakened production activities [1] - New orders and new export orders indices decreased to 49.2 and 46.4 respectively, both hitting 11-month lows, influenced by the early Spring Festival and delayed consumption demand due to subsidy policies [1] Group 2 - The inventory index for finished goods dropped to 46.5, the lowest in a year and a half, indicating a cautious replenishment attitude among enterprises amid external uncertainties [1] - The construction PMI fell to a historic low of 49.3, affected by seasonal factors and weak investment, with expectations of a rebound post-Spring Festival [1] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased to 50.3 but remained in the expansion zone, supported by growth in travel and hospitality services as the Spring Festival approached [1] Group 3 - The report anticipates a significant seasonal rebound in manufacturing PMI in February and March 2025, with expectations of maintaining a stable growth in the second quarter [1] - The domestic policy focus for 2025 is expected to be on substantial consumer subsidies and optimizing local government debt structures, with infrastructure investment growth projected to remain stable [1] - The monetary policy in 2025 is likely to be constrained by domestic credit demand and exchange rate stabilization priorities, while fiscal policy is expected to play a more prominent role in stimulating the economy [1]