房地产行业第4周周报：本周二手房成交同环比均负增长；预计25年将有力有序有效推进城市更新

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new home transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis, while the year-on-year growth rate has narrowed. In contrast, the second-hand home transaction area has seen an expanded decline month-on-month and shifted from positive to negative year-on-year [6][12]. - The inventory of new homes has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening month-on-month and decreasing year-on-year [6][38]. - The land market shows a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in price, with the premium rate declining month-on-month but increasing year-on-year [62][70]. Summary by Sections New Home Market Tracking - In the week of January 18-24, 2025, 40 cities recorded new home transaction units of 23,000, with a month-on-month increase of 6.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The transaction area was 2.452 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.4% and a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [13][23]. - The transaction area for new homes in first, second, and third-fourth tier cities showed varied month-on-month growth rates, with first-tier cities declining by 13.9% [13][18]. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In the same week, 18 cities recorded second-hand home transaction units of 18,000, with a month-on-month decline of 16.5% and a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. The transaction area was 160,000 square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 19.4% and a year-on-year decline of 8.4% [49][53]. Land Market Tracking - The total planned building area for land transactions across 100 cities was 10.406 million square meters, down 4.0% month-on-month and down 45.0% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 19.32 billion yuan, up 28.2% month-on-month but down 7.7% year-on-year [62][66]. - The average floor price for land transactions was 1,856.5 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 33.5% and a year-on-year increase of 67.9% [65][69]. Policy Overview - Recent policies emphasize urban renewal and land reserve management, aiming to enhance the efficiency of land resource allocation and promote urban development [107][108]. Company Performance - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in key cities, such as Greentown China, Binjiang Group, and China Resources Land, among others [143][145].