光伏行业月报：2024年国内新增光伏装机再创历史新高，光伏主产业链价格企稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the power equipment and new energy sector, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [71][62]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a 5.23% decline in the photovoltaic index in January, underperforming the CSI 300 index. The average daily trading volume in the photovoltaic sector dropped significantly to 21.7 billion yuan [6][8]. - In 2024, domestic new photovoltaic installations reached a record high of 277.17 GW, a year-on-year increase of 27.80%, with December alone contributing 70.87 GW, up 36.63% year-on-year [19][22]. - The supply-side adjustments in the photovoltaic industry are showing effects, with upstream prices stabilizing. The production of polysilicon decreased significantly, with December output at 103,800 tons, down 21.95% month-on-month [29][34]. - The report suggests that while the industry is entering a phase of destocking and capacity reduction, a complete turnaround in supply-demand dynamics and a return to growth will require more positive factors [62][62]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic index saw a significant drop in January, with most sub-sectors experiencing declines. The best-performing sub-sector was conductive silver paste, which increased by 3.77%, while polysilicon and solar modules saw declines of 10.45% and 7.92%, respectively [11][14]. - The overall performance of photovoltaic stocks was weak, with many companies reporting losses as they entered the annual performance forecast period [8][14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a plan to optimize power system regulation capabilities to support the reasonable consumption of over 200 million kilowatts of new energy annually from 2025 to 2027 [15][15]. - The report highlights the importance of new technologies in the solar battery sector, including the development of perovskite heterojunction stacked batteries [48][48]. Key Data Points - The report notes that the cumulative export value of solar batteries in 2024 was 217.698 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.80%, with December exports amounting to 14.054 billion yuan, down 15.76% year-on-year [22][22]. - The average price of polysilicon stabilized at 39 yuan/kg as of January 15, 2025, with N-type silicon wafers experiencing price increases due to heightened demand [34][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with clear capacity clearance expectations, such as photovoltaic glass, integrated component manufacturers, polysilicon materials, and electronic silver paste [62][62].