美联储1月如期暂停降息，3月或继续暂停降息

Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in January, marking the first pause since the rate-cutting cycle began in September of the previous year[1] - The Fed's statement removed the phrase "progress towards the 2% inflation target," indicating a more hawkish stance[1] - Powell emphasized that the pause was due to a strong U.S. economy and labor market, suggesting no immediate need for policy adjustments[1] Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in March is low, with expectations that the Fed will also pause in that month unless economic data weakens significantly[2] - The Fed's current forecast predicts two rate cuts this year, but actual cuts may exceed this prediction, potentially reaching 3-4 cuts of 25 basis points each[3] - The impact of Trump's policies on inflation is considered limited, as the administration's tariff threats are viewed as negotiation tactics rather than immediate economic changes[3] Economic Indicators - December's economic data showed resilience in the U.S. economy, with a strong labor market and steady consumer spending[3] - The Fed remains cautious about rate cuts in the short term, likely skipping cuts in March due to stable economic indicators[3] - Rising U.S. Treasury yields are expected to influence economic momentum and labor market performance in the medium term[3] Risks - If Trump escalates tariffs more aggressively than anticipated, the number of Fed rate cuts may be significantly lower than expected[4] - Potential risks include slow rate cuts leading to economic recession and inflation risks stemming from Trump's new policies[4]