索菲亚：政策加码2025可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to the real estate cycle and intensified market competition, leading to a projected revenue decline of 0-10% year-on-year. However, the implementation of government policies supporting consumer demand is anticipated to drive a recovery in the home furnishing sector [1]. - The company has implemented cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, focusing on improving labor efficiency and strict expense control, which is expected to optimize its debt structure and significantly reduce financial costs [1]. - Non-recurring gains from the sale of equity stakes in subsidiaries are projected to positively impact net profit, with an estimated contribution of 229-280 million yuan, leading to an overall increase in net profit [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.32-1.45 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5-15%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 1.02-1.13 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0-10% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be between 10.5-11.67 billion yuan, with a decline of 0-10% compared to the previous year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to see a net profit of 400-530 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 29-71% [1]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established five core competitive strengths, including brand marketing, research and development, environmental performance, quality control, channel expansion, and delivery services [3]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix covering various categories, including wardrobes, cabinets, doors, walls, flooring, home appliances, and sanitary ware, while continuously innovating to meet aesthetic trends [3][4]. - The company has expanded its sales channels, with approximately 4,000 retail stores across 1,800 cities, and is actively pursuing online and offline integrated marketing strategies [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 15.77 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of about 10.67 billion yuan [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.41 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12x [9]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 47.31%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [5].