2025年1月PMI数据点评：假期因素导致1月制造业PMI环比回落

Manufacturing PMI Insights - January Manufacturing PMI index decreased to 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from December 2024, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - New orders index fell to 49.2%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, while new export orders dropped to 46.4%, down 1.9 percentage points[3] - Production index declined to 49.8%, down 2.3 percentage points, and raw material inventory index decreased to 47.7%, down 0.6 percentage points[3] Price Index and Economic Factors - January's raw material purchase price index rose by 1.3 percentage points, and factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points, reflecting improved prices in some upstream industries[2] - The petroleum processing and coking industry saw new orders and factory price indices both rise by over 7.0 percentage points, influenced by tariff factors[2] - Starting February 10, 2025, tariffs on certain imports from the U.S. will increase by 15%, potentially affecting future price indices in the petroleum processing sector[2] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - January Non-Manufacturing PMI index fell to 50.2%, down 2.0 percentage points but remained in the expansion zone[4] - New orders index for non-manufacturing dropped to 46.4%, down 2.3 percentage points, with new export orders at 44.6%, down 5.4 percentage points[4] - The construction sector's PMI index decreased to 49.3%, down 3.9 percentage points, with new orders index at 44.7%, down 6.7 percentage points[18]