策略周报：关税带来扰动，科技仍是先锋

Core Insights - The report highlights that the A-share market trend remains upward, with AI developments potentially bringing new investment opportunities for Chinese assets, particularly in the technology sector [2][9] - The introduction of the DeepSeek AI model is expected to disrupt the valuation logic of US tech stocks, leading to significant adjustments in companies like Nvidia [3][8] - The report anticipates that gold prices will continue to be strong in 2025, driven by geopolitical risks and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3][8] Market Overview - During the holiday period, global risk assets showed mixed performance, with US stocks slightly weakening while safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar performed relatively well [8] - The report notes that as of January 31, the spot price of gold reached a new high, reflecting increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][8] - The report emphasizes that the US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies will significantly impact the performance of major asset classes in the near future [3][8] AI and Technology Sector - The launch of DeepSeek, a low-cost and high-performance AI model, is expected to catalyze growth in the AI sector and related applications, enhancing the commercial viability of AI products [3][23] - The report indicates that the performance of the H-share technology sector has shown structural growth, contrasting with the significant declines in the US information technology sector during the same period [18][20] - The report highlights the potential of AI ASIC and AI applications to benefit from the advancements brought by DeepSeek, suggesting a promising outlook for these sectors [26][35] Consumer and Real Estate Trends - Consumer data during the Spring Festival showed improvements compared to 2024, with notable increases in travel and retail sales, indicating a recovery in offline consumption [28][30] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with transaction volumes in January reflecting a year-on-year increase, particularly in first-tier cities [32][34] - The report notes that the overall recovery in the real estate and consumer sectors is steady, with the introduction of DeepSeek marking a significant milestone in AI industry development [35][36] Tariff Policies and Trade Relations - The report discusses the implementation of new tariffs by the US on Chinese imports, which could negatively impact domestic export chains, while companies with overseas production capabilities may be more resilient [39][43] - The potential for ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs suggests that there may still be room for dialogue between the US and China, which could influence market dynamics [39][38] - The report advises investors to focus on A-share companies with production capacities in the US, as they are expected to have stronger risk resilience in the face of tariff changes [39][43]