Economic Outlook - The focus of China's macroeconomic data remains on the recovery of domestic demand, particularly consumer spending, with a marginal consumption propensity of 68.3%, returning to pre-pandemic levels[10] - In 2024, final consumption expenditure contributed 2.2 percentage points to GDP growth, accounting for 44.5%, which is the lowest level since 2008[6] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2024 was 1.5 percentage points, the highest since 2002, indicating a strong performance in this area despite weak domestic demand[6] Policy and Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in January, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%, which aligns with market expectations[31] - The anticipated interest rate cuts for 2025 are estimated to be between 50-75 basis points, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies[32] - The short-term strength of the US dollar is supported by a robust US economy and differences in monetary policy between the US and Europe, with expectations of continued strong fluctuations in the dollar index in the first half of 2025[37] Risks and Recommendations - The impact of new tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to be less severe than in 2018, with a potential maximum decline of 12.5% in exports to the US, which could reduce overall export growth by approximately 1.8 percentage points[18] - The need for sustained policy efforts to promote price recovery is emphasized, as the GDP deflator index has been negative for seven consecutive quarters[25] - Market volatility is likely to be influenced by changes in risk appetite due to external uncertainties, with gold prices expected to perform well amid these conditions, having recently surpassed $2800 per ounce[41]
2025年2月宏观经济展望:提振内需仍是关键,风险偏好扰动市场
中银证券·2025-02-05 11:03