交通运输行业周报：美国加征关税或促使集运市场提前出货，2024年快递业务量同比增长21.5%

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [130] Core Insights - The proposed 10% tariff on Chinese imports by the US is expected to lead to early shipments in the container shipping market [2][14] - Domestic travel in China is projected to reach 5.615 billion trips in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [18] - The express delivery market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a projected 21.5% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume for 2024 [25] Industry Highlights - Tariff Impact: The US plans to impose a 10% tariff on imports from China, which may cause a surge in early shipments in the container shipping market. This could disrupt shipping cycles and lead to increased freight rates [2][15] - Domestic Travel Growth: In 2024, domestic travel is expected to reach 5.615 billion trips, an increase of 724 million trips from the previous year, with urban residents contributing significantly to this growth [18][19] - Express Delivery Market Dynamics: The express delivery sector is shifting towards high-quality competition, with major companies focusing on service quality and international market expansion. In 2024, the total express delivery volume is expected to reach 1.758 billion packages, marking a 21.5% increase [25][26] Industry Data Tracking - Air Cargo: Air freight prices have shown an upward trend, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4447.00 points, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase [29] - Shipping Rates: The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has decreased to 2045.45 points, down 4.01% week-on-week [40] - Express Delivery Volume: In December 2024, the express delivery volume increased by 22.3% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 1378.90 billion yuan [50][51] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] - Consider opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shipping [4] - Look into e-commerce and express delivery investments, recommending SF Express and Yunda [4] - Pay attention to the aviation sector, recommending China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]