电子行业深度报告：给不同制程估值定价，全球晶圆厂估值新法，单位产能市值的分部展开

Investment Rating - The report rates the semiconductor wafer manufacturing industry as "Outperform" [3]. Core Insights - The complexity of the wafer manufacturing industry necessitates a new valuation method, as traditional methods like PB, PS, and PE have significant limitations in capturing the industry's unique characteristics [10][12]. - The proposed valuation method, "Unit Capacity Market Value," focuses on the market value per unit of production capacity, which aligns better with the industry's asset-heavy and cyclical nature [39][40]. - TSMC serves as a benchmark for establishing unit capacity market values across different process nodes, providing a comprehensive valuation standard for other wafer manufacturers [2][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Characteristics and Valuation Challenges - The wafer manufacturing industry is characterized by high capital intensity, technological complexity, and cyclical volatility, making traditional valuation methods inadequate [10][12]. - The rapid technological advancements and geopolitical factors further complicate the valuation process, as they introduce significant uncertainties in revenue predictions [12][14]. 2. Unit Capacity Market Value Methodology - The unit capacity market value is defined as the market value corresponding to each unit of production capacity, which directly reflects core asset value rather than indirect financial metrics [39]. - This method allows for a more accurate assessment of a wafer manufacturer's long-term value, especially during industry upturns or technological breakthroughs [39][40]. 3. Application of Unit Capacity Market Value - The report validates the unit capacity market value method using GlobalFoundries as a case study, demonstrating its effectiveness in aligning market value with production capacity [3][11]. - For Chinese wafer manufacturers, the report projects a total market value of approximately $120.42 billion, considering current production capacities and potential future advancements in technology [3][12]. 4. Comparative Analysis of Wafer Manufacturers - The report provides a detailed comparison of unit capacity market values across various wafer manufacturers, highlighting the differences in process technology and market positioning [40][41]. - TSMC's advanced process nodes significantly contribute to its higher unit capacity market value compared to competitors, reflecting its technological leadership in the industry [2][40].