经济放缓、低通胀下的财政政策选择：基于历史和国际经验的比较与展望

Economic Overview - China's economy is facing pressures from slowing GDP growth and weak prices, with GDP growth expected to be around 5.0% in 2024, showing a quarterly trend of 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4% respectively[4][17] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is experiencing a continuous negative growth, with a decline of 2.2% in 2024, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous year[31] Policy Recommendations - Historical and international experiences suggest that effective demand-side and supply-side macro policies can stimulate economic growth; examples include the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the US during the Great Depression and similar measures in the Eurozone and Japan[4][8][9] - It is anticipated that China will implement more proactive macroeconomic policies in 2025, focusing on fiscal policy to boost investment and consumption in key areas[10][11] Investment and Consumption Trends - Investment growth in 2024 is projected at 3.2%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.4% and manufacturing investment rising by 9.2%, while real estate investment is expected to decline by 10.6%[24][26] - Consumer spending is also slowing, with retail sales expected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, down from previous years, indicating a need for policies to stimulate consumption[29][30] Fiscal Space and Future Directions - The central government has significant fiscal space, with potential bond issuance estimated at approximately 27 trillion yuan if the debt-to-GDP ratio remains below 45%[11] - Future fiscal policies are likely to focus on enhancing public services for new urban residents, increasing pension income for rural elderly, and supporting basic healthcare for vulnerable groups[11]