重庆啤酒：公司事件点评报告：业绩表现承压，期待需求回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Chongqing Beer [1][4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 fell short of expectations, with total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 14.645 billion, 1.245 billion, and 1.222 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of -1.15%, -6.84%, and -7.04% [2] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant pressure on profits, with revenue and profit figures of 1.582 billion and -0.87 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year revenue decline of -11.45% and a loss in profit [2] - The company is committed to a high-end strategy and plans to increase the development of non-drinking channels, with high-end products expected to grow in sales while some brands like Chongqing and others are projected to decline [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company experienced a decline in both volume and price, with sales volume down by -0.75% and -8.03% in 2024 and Q4 respectively, primarily due to challenges in the dining and entertainment channels and adverse weather conditions in some markets [2] - The average price per unit also decreased, with declines of -0.40% and -3.72% for the full year and Q4 respectively [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance its high-end product offerings and reduce the proportion of mid-to-low-end products in non-drinking channels, while also promoting non-beer products [3] - In 2025, the company will continue to refine its non-drinking channel management by segmenting it into nine channels and teams, aiming to improve operational efficiency [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.57, 2.71, and 2.92 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21, 20, and 19 times [4] - The company is expected to benefit from lower barley costs in 2025, although it will face increased depreciation expenses from the Foshan factory and freight optimization [3]