HEILAN HOME(600398) 广发证券·2025-02-09 23:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 7.79 CNY and a fair value of 9.46 CNY [3]. Core Views - The report highlights the potential of the JD Outlet model, which is in its early stages but shows promise due to JD's brand strength and the company's operational capabilities in lower-tier cities. The low-risk, light-asset model of JD Outlet is expected to have significant growth potential [8][18]. Financial Forecast - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 18.562 billion CNY in 2022 to 26.533 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.1% from 2025 to 2026 [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 4.651 billion CNY in 2022 to 5.727 billion CNY in 2026 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 2.155 billion CNY in 2022 to 2.908 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 15.2% in 2026 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are estimated to be 0.50 CNY in 2022, increasing to 0.61 CNY by 2026 [2]. Store Insights - The JD Outlet store in Pingdingshan, Henan, has a strategic location with a population of 678,100 within a 3 km radius and an average monthly foot traffic of 1.055 million [8][19]. - The store covers an area of approximately 5,000 square meters and features nine main product categories, with sports apparel being the dominant category at 25% of the store's area [29][30]. Brand Matrix - The store hosts a diverse range of brands, including Adidas, Nike, and Puma, with Adidas being the leading brand in the sports category [39][40]. - The brand matrix includes various segments such as sports shoes, outdoor clothing, and beauty products, catering to a wide customer base [39][40]. Pricing and Discounts - The store offers significant discounts, typically ranging from 30% to 50%, with specific categories like sports shoes averaging a discount of 52% [71][72]. - Many products are priced lower than their counterparts on online platforms like Tmall, enhancing the store's competitive edge [72][75].