CBC(600132) 兴业证券·2025-02-10 05:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.84% [2][3] - The performance is under pressure due to weak sales volume and pricing, with a projected sales volume of 2.975 million tons in 2024, down 0.75% year-on-year [3] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to maintain a high dividend level, with cash dividend ratios of 83.0%, 99.6%, and 101.4% for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, with a slight decline in net profit to 1.245 billion yuan [5] - The gross margin is expected to decrease to 48.5% in 2024 from 49.1% in 2023 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 2.57 yuan, down from 2.76 yuan in 2023 [5] Sales and Market Dynamics - The sales volume is projected to decline to 2.975 million tons in 2024, with a quarterly breakdown showing a significant drop in Q4 [3] - The company faces challenges in high-end product sales, with brands like 1664 and Uusu experiencing a decline, while others like Lebao and Carlsberg continue to grow [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to explore new growth opportunities and expand non-drinking channels, with expectations for revenue stability in 2025 [4] - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 14.789 billion yuan and 14.968 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.267 billion yuan and 1.298 billion yuan [5]