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摩根大通：比亚迪
002594BYD(002594) 摩根大通·2025-02-08 12:50

Investment Rating - The report places BYD on a Positive Catalyst Watch with an Overweight (OW) rating and a price target of HK475.00forDecember2025[2][6][12].CoreInsights−Thereporthighlightstwomajortrendsfor2025:therisingadoptionofadvancedautonomousdriving(AD)solutionsandtheexpansionofChinesebrandsinoverseasmarkets,particularlyasforeigncompetitorsfacechallengesfromUStariffs[2][21].−BYD′searningsestimatesfor2025areapproximately10475.00 for December 2025 [2][6][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights two major trends for 2025: the rising adoption of advanced autonomous driving (AD) solutions and the expansion of Chinese brands in overseas markets, particularly as foreign competitors face challenges from US tariffs [2][21]. - BYD's earnings estimates for 2025 are approximately 10% above consensus, indicating strong growth potential [2][21]. - The report anticipates that BYD's global deliveries will reach 6.5 million units by 2026, with around 1.5 million units coming from overseas markets, leading to an increase in global market share from 3% in 2023 to 7% in 2026 [21][22]. Summary by Sections Advanced Autonomous Driving (AD) Solutions - BYD is expected to showcase its latest navigation on autopilot (NOA) solutions, which will significantly reduce the bill of materials (BOM) costs for both city and highway NOA features [5][8]. - The BOM for city NOA is projected to decrease from approximately Rmb20,000 in 2024 to Rmb10,000-15,000 in 2025, while highway NOA costs are expected to drop from Rmb4,000-5,000 to around Rmb3,000 [7][8]. Overseas Market Expansion - BYD plans to complete assembly plants in Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and Hungary by the end of 2025, which will enhance its production capacity and help mitigate tariff impacts through localization [5][21]. - The report forecasts that Chinese brands, including BYD, could double their overseas market share to approximately 12% by 2030 [5][21]. Financial Projections - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for BYD, estimating a total equity value of Rmb1,284,233 million, translating to a price of HK475 [15][16]. - Key assumptions include a 13x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the EV battery segment and a 1.4x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for NEV manufacturing, reflecting BYD's potential for a re-rating driven by global expansion [15][22].