CBC(600132) 开源证券·2025-02-10 07:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term pressure due to weak demand and inventory destocking, but high dividends are likely to continue [4][7] - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15%, and a net profit of 1.244 billion yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year [4][9] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates revised to 1.244 billion yuan, 1.351 billion yuan, and 1.433 billion yuan respectively [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a 0.75% decline in sales volume for 2024, primarily due to weak restaurant consumption and increased rainy weather [5] - The average price per ton is projected to decrease by 0.4% due to a decline in the share of on-premise consumption channels [5] - The net profit margin is expected to decline due to a decrease in product structure and increased depreciation costs from new factory operations [6] Cash Flow and Dividends - Despite facing challenges, the company maintains good cash flow, and high dividends are expected to provide strong support for the stock price [7] - The company plans to increase investments in non-on-premise channels to improve product structure [7] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21.5 for 2024, 19.8 for 2025, and 18.6 for 2026 [4][9] - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 2.57 yuan, 2.79 yuan, and 2.96 yuan respectively [4][9]