2025年1月物价数据点评：春节效应下，价格仍然偏稳

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2025, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from 0.1% in the previous month[10] - Food prices rose by 0.4%, contributing approximately 0.07 percentage points to the CPI increase, while service prices surged by 1.1%, adding about 0.42 percentage points[10] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating stable demand[11] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in January 2025, maintaining the same decline as the previous month[20] - The PPI's decline was primarily influenced by significant drops in sectors such as black metal smelting and coal mining, which collectively accounted for over 90% of the total decline[20] - Production material prices fell by 2.6%, while living material prices decreased by 1.2%, impacting the overall PPI levels[21] Group 3: Market Outlook - The report anticipates a return to price stability after the Chinese New Year, with a likelihood of price declines in the wake of the holiday effects[28] - The low inflation environment is expected to create space for more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies to support economic recovery[28] - Overall, the PPI is projected to remain stable, despite the ongoing negative growth in industrial prices[27] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[29]