MEITUAN(03690) 国信证券·2025-02-13 08:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [4][11]. Core Views - JD's entry into the food delivery market is seen as a supportive business for JD Daojia, with limited resource allocation from the group, which will not significantly impact Meituan's core competitiveness in food delivery [3][5]. - Meituan's strong market position in the food delivery sector is highlighted, with no significant competitors observed at present [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - JD's food delivery service launched a recruitment campaign for "quality dine-in restaurant merchants," offering zero commission for merchants who join by May 1, 2025 [2]. Market Analysis - JD's food delivery is primarily targeting top chain merchants, which have limited impact on Meituan's overall advertising and commission contributions [3][11]. - The penetration rate of JD's main platform and Daojia is significantly lower compared to Meituan's, indicating a weaker user mindset towards near-field retail and food delivery [3][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for Meituan for 2024-2026 are adjusted to CNY 338.2 billion, CNY 391.4 billion, and CNY 445.7 billion, reflecting a slight decrease of -0.1% for 2024 and increases of +0.6% for 2025 and 2026 [4][11]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are CNY 43 billion, CNY 52.2 billion, and CNY 58.5 billion, with minor adjustments of 0.0%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively [4][11]. Valuation - The target price for Meituan is set between HKD 185 and HKD 203, indicating an upside potential of 20% to 32% from the current price [4][11].