潮宏基更新报告：厚积薄发，逆境显峥嵘

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on a 15x valuation for 2025, indicating an upside potential of approximately 30% [14][15]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a gold and jewelry brand targeting young consumers aged 25-35, focusing on self-indulgent needs. The high proportion of lightweight products and optimized product structure, combined with store expansion, is expected to drive performance beyond expectations. The company anticipates a high dividend yield of over 6% by 2025 [1][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Expectations - The company is expected to achieve same-store revenue growth despite challenges in the gold jewelry market. The shift in consumer preference towards lower-priced, aesthetically appealing products is anticipated to benefit the company, which focuses on a price range of 2,000 to 5,000 yuan [2][3]. 2. Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in consumer confidence and a potential return to positive growth in the gold jewelry sector starting from April 2024, following a period of decline due to rising gold prices [2][4]. 3. Product Strategy - The company emphasizes product design and quality control, establishing a strong product and aesthetic appeal through original designs and collaborations. This strategy aligns with the trend of "aesthetic awakening" among consumers [3][4]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 64 billion yuan in 2024 to 84 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing from 3.42 billion yuan to 5.02 billion yuan over the same period. The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a forecasted dividend yield of 6.8% in 2025 [14][17]. 5. Competitive Positioning - The report argues that the company, along with a few other brands, is transitioning the gold jewelry industry from a channel-driven model to one focused on product and operational excellence, which should warrant a premium valuation [13][14].