宏观和大类资产配置周报：以改革推动金融服务实体经济

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic report emphasizes the importance of reform in driving financial services to support the real economy[1] - The recommended asset allocation hierarchy is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[1] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 Index increased by 1.19% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.56%[2] - Coking coal futures fell by 4.98%, and iron ore main contracts decreased by 0.73%[2] - The expected yield on bank wealth management products dropped by 1 basis point (BP) to 1.93%, and the 7-day annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 23 BP to 1.29%[2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 5 BP to 1.65%, while active 10-year government bond futures fell by 0.52%[2] Economic Data Insights - January CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply grew by 7.0% year-on-year, and M1 increased by 0.4% year-on-year[5] - New RMB loans amounted to 5.13 trillion yuan, and the incremental social financing scale was 7.06 trillion yuan[5] Policy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies in the short term and the effects of growth stabilization policies in the medium term[4] - The outlook for the stock market is positive, with an overweight recommendation, while bonds and currency are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect[4] - The report warns of significant uncertainties in the economic outlook for Europe and the U.S. over the next year[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a rapid decline in the European and American economies, and increasing complexity in international relations[6]