基础化工2024年报业绩前瞻：Q4成本冲高回落，终端需求疲软，价差底部静待春旺

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The profitability of the chemical industry is expected to be high in early 2024 but decline later, with Q4 oil prices showing a slight rebound followed by a drop, and weak terminal demand affecting price spreads [3][4] - The report highlights that most product price spreads in the chemical sector have bottomed out, with a focus on demand recovery in spring [4] - Key sectors expected to see significant net profit growth in 2024 include phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, vitamins, fluorochemicals, tires, and high-performance materials [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Q4 oil prices are projected to average $74.87 per barrel, down 15.9$2.98 per million British thermal units, down 51.2% year-on-year but up 33.1% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The average price of thermal coal is expected to be 837 RMB per ton in Q4, down 13.2% year-on-year and 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [3] Company Performance Forecasts - Wanhua Chemical is expected to achieve a net profit of 14.093 billion RMB in 2024, down 16% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit at 3 billion RMB, down 27% year-on-year [3][7] - Hualu Hengsheng is projected to have a net profit of 3.849 billion RMB in 2024, up 8% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit at 800 million RMB, up 23% year-on-year [3][7] - Luxi Chemical is expected to see a significant increase in net profit to 2.025 billion RMB in 2024, up 147% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit at 450 million RMB, up 44% year-on-year [3][7] Sector Highlights - The fluorochemical sector is expected to benefit from quota adjustments, with companies like Juhua Co. projected to achieve a net profit of 2.008 billion RMB in 2024, up 113% year-on-year [3][7] - The tire industry is anticipated to face pressure in Q4 due to seasonal factors, but companies like Sailun Tire are expected to see a net profit of 4.274 billion RMB in 2024, up 38% year-on-year [3][7] - The new materials sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Yake Technology expected to achieve a net profit of 899 million RMB in 2024, up 55% year-on-year [5][7]