主题策略-信用策略海外专题：从供给主体和泡沫程度看日本楼市的调整经验

Investment Rating - The report suggests a more optimistic outlook for the domestic real estate market compared to Japan's historical experience, indicating a potential for quicker stabilization and recovery [3][14]. Core Insights - The adjustment pace of the domestic real estate market is expected to differ significantly from Japan's prolonged downturn, with key factors being the speed of recovery in housing price expectations among residents [10][14]. - Japan's real estate bubble was characterized by a significant financial bubble, with the peak financial bubble value in the Tokyo area reaching 68%, while major Chinese cities like Shenzhen and Beijing had much lower peaks of 45% and 26.1% respectively [14][15]. - The report emphasizes that the burden of asset depreciation costs in Japan was primarily borne by the residential and corporate sectors, leading to a slower recovery in asset values and expectations [17][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Adjustment Dynamics - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the adjustment of the domestic real estate market: a rapid clearing and stabilization or a prolonged period of gradual decline similar to Japan's experience [10][14]. - The adjustment speed is influenced by the residents' recovery of housing price expectations, which is critical for determining the market's trajectory [10][14]. 2. Comparison with Japan's Market - Japan's real estate market faced a significant financial bubble, with the cumulative price increase of residential land and second-hand houses showing a stark contrast to China's lower bubble peaks [14][15]. - The report highlights that the Japanese government played a limited role in directly assisting residents during the market downturn, which contributed to a slower recovery process [2][17]. 3. Factors Influencing Market Conditions - The report identifies that the concentration of financial and population resources in Japan facilitated the formation of a substantial real estate bubble, exacerbated by a lack of stringent regulatory measures [46][47]. - In contrast, the Chinese government has a stronger control over land supply and has set a policy goal for the real estate market to stabilize by the second half of 2024, indicating a more proactive approach to market management [3][14].