港股分析框架与2025年行情展望

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market and A-shares are currently in a profit cycle that began in Q3 2023, with a relatively weak performance compared to previous cycles[1]. - The profit cycles from 2009 to 2023 have lasted between 11 to 13 quarters, indicating a consistent pattern of 3-4 year cycles[1]. Liquidity Analysis - HIBOR is a key indicator of liquidity in Hong Kong, with its fluctuations indicating tight or ample funding in the interbank market[1]. - The HIBOR-LIBOR spread is crucial for assessing capital flows into Hong Kong, with an expanding spread indicating increased inflows[1]. Investment Trends - The proportion of stocks eligible for trading through the Stock Connect program is only 13.41%, but these stocks account for 10.10% of the total market capitalization[1]. - In 2024, net inflows from the Stock Connect program are projected to reach HKD 8 billion, enhancing the influence of foreign capital on the Hong Kong market[1]. Risk Assessment - The Hong Kong risk preference index, constructed using various global financial pressure indices, indicates a higher probability of adjustment when the Hang Seng Index touches ±1X or ±2X standard deviations from its moving average[1]. - The ongoing domestic policies are expected to support economic growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and infrastructure development[1]. IPO and Financing Trends - In 2024, Hong Kong's IPO market saw 70 companies raise a total of HKD 880.04 million, a significant increase of 89.93% from 2023[1]. - The largest IPO in 2024 was Midea Group, raising HKD 356.66 million, compared to the largest IPO in 2023, which raised HKD 53.09 million[1]. Refinancing Landscape - The number of refinancing companies in Hong Kong increased by 15.76% in 2024, totaling 404 companies, although this is still 45.84% lower than the peak in 2015[1]. - The total amount raised through refinancing in 2024 was HKD 875.13 million, a decrease of 8.94% from 2023[1].