Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that TCL Electronics is expected to exceed profit expectations in H2 2024, with a projected adjusted net profit of HKD 6.5 to 10.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% to 93% [7] - The company is anticipated to achieve a full-year adjusted net profit of HKD 13 to 17 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62% to 112% [7] - The report highlights that TCL's television sales, both domestic and international, are expected to grow significantly, with a total volume increase of 15% for the year, outperforming the global television volume growth of 1.8% [6][7] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Domestic sales are projected to increase by 5% in Q3 and 7% in Q4, with MiniLED shipments doubling year-on-year and penetration rates reaching 15.3% and 24.4% respectively [5] - International sales are expected to grow by 24% in Q3 and 23% in Q4, with large-screen shipments increasing by 80% year-on-year in H2 [5] - By region, Europe is expected to see a 34% increase in shipments, followed by emerging markets at 13% and North America at 6% [5] Profitability Analysis - The report forecasts a significant improvement in profitability, with H2 adjusted net profit expected to increase by 56% year-on-year [8] - Factors contributing to this improvement include a favorable product mix due to MiniLED and large-screen trends, reduced cost pressures, and effective cost management [8] - The projected revenue for 2024 to 2026 is estimated at HKD 98.5 billion, HKD 114.4 billion, and HKD 130.6 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 14.6 billion, HKD 18.5 billion, and HKD 22.5 billion [9][11] Financial Metrics - The report provides key financial metrics, including a projected revenue growth of 25% in 2024 and a net profit growth of 96% in the same year [11] - The expected return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.45% in 2023 to 8.22% in 2024 [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 11.38 in 2024, indicating a low valuation with a dividend yield exceeding 4.5% [9][11]
TCL电子24H2预告点评：持续向上，H2盈利再超预期