SRBC(600039) 华源证券·2025-02-18 07:11Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial investment rating of "Buy" for Sichuan Road and Bridge [4][6]. Core Views - Sichuan Road and Bridge is positioned to benefit from the ongoing infrastructure investment in the Sichuan-Chongqing economic circle, focusing on its core business to explore new growth opportunities [4][8]. - The company has a strong market position in the Sichuan province, with a solid financial structure and ample funding support for infrastructure projects [5][41]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.018 billion, 8.637 billion, and 9.538 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of -10.94%, +7.71%, and +10.44% respectively [4][6]. - Revenue forecasts for the same period are -9.08%, +7.43%, and +9.21%, indicating a compound annual growth rate of +8.31% [7][8]. Market Environment - Sichuan province's infrastructure investment is expected to continue growing, with public road investment increasing from 123.98 billion RMB in 2016 to 255.57 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 10.89% [5][41]. - The province's comprehensive financial strength reached 1,938.907 billion RMB in 2023, ranking fifth among 20 provinces, with a debt ratio of only 105%, indicating a healthy fiscal structure [5][57]. Business Strategy - The company has optimized its shareholding structure, increasing the stake in its profitable road and bridge mining segment from 60% to 64%, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce pressure from non-core businesses [5][8]. - Sichuan Road and Bridge maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 50%, which is expected to continue, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [5][32]. Growth Potential - The report highlights the potential for recovery and growth following the impact of the "8.21" flood event, with new leadership expected to drive higher quality growth and transformation [5][36][37]. - The ongoing development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is anticipated to further enhance the company's market opportunities, with significant investments planned in transportation infrastructure [5][51].