2025年美国宏观经济与投资预判

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is expected to be stable yet risky in 2025, with the keyword being "conflict" due to Trump's return to presidency and Republican control of Congress[2] - Key economic indicators show nominal GDP growth at 4.96% in Q4 2024, slightly above the potential growth rate of 4.6%[3] - Inflation, measured by PCE, rebounded to 2.55% in December 2024, slightly above the target of 2%[3] Employment and Consumer Trends - The unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in December 2024, below the natural rate of 4.1%[3] - Household debt levels are normal, with debt-to-disposable income ratios below critical thresholds, indicating no significant debt pressure on consumers[8] - Job vacancy rates remain high, with a peak of 4.90% in November 2024, suggesting a tight labor market[11] Risks and Uncertainties - Trump's policies may introduce significant economic shocks, creating uncertainty in the financial markets and increasing investment risks[12] - The potential rise in the U.S. economy's growth rate due to AI advancements could lead to higher neutral interest rates, further complicating monetary policy[12] Investment Strategy Recommendations - For the stock market, focus on globalized large tech companies, as their overseas revenue often exceeds 50%, reducing regional dependency[14] - In the bond market, prioritize short-duration government bonds and high-grade debt for stable returns amidst volatility[14] - Consider strategic allocation to gold and a cautious outlook on the U.S. dollar[15]