通信行业2025年度策略：聚焦通信技术变革

Investment Rating - The report rates the communication industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The communication industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2025, driven by rapid development in AI applications and computing power expansion, with a focus on technological transformation [1][2] - AEC copper cables and CPO technology are anticipated to be the two major industrial directions in 2025, presenting significant investment opportunities [2] - The construction of low-orbit satellite constellations in China is expected to enhance service capabilities in remote education, healthcare, and disaster warning, while also promoting international cooperation [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry index outperformed the market with a cumulative increase of 28.82% in 2024, ranking third among 31 primary industries [9] - The overall holding ratio of the communication industry has significantly increased, indicating a favorable investment environment [10] Operators' Performance - Major operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom have shown stable revenue growth, with respective revenues of CNY 791.46 billion, CNY 391.97 billion, and CNY 290.12 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2.05%, 2.99%, and 2.85% [13][14] - The net profit for these operators also increased, with China Mobile at CNY 110.88 billion, China Telecom at CNY 29.30 billion, and China Unicom at CNY 8.34 billion, showing growth rates of 5.1%, 8.1%, and 10.0% respectively [13] Demand and Growth Drivers - The demand for computing power is accelerating, with the telecommunications business maintaining steady growth and emerging businesses experiencing rapid increases [18] - The total revenue from telecommunications services reached CNY 1,453.5 billion in the first ten months of 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [20] - The number of mobile users reached 1.79 billion, with 5G users at 1.002 billion, indicating a stable growth trend [22] Technological Innovations - CPO technology is highlighted as the next generation of optical interconnection technology, with significant advancements expected in data center architectures [38] - The report emphasizes the importance of CPO in reducing signal loss and improving system performance, which is crucial for meeting the demands of high-speed data transmission [43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on operators (China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom), optical chip/device manufacturers (Yuanjie Technology, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light), and satellite communication companies (China Satellite, Shanghai Hantong, Zhenyou Technology) [3][52]