Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus [1] Core Views - The January production and sales data showed a decline due to the impact of the Spring Festival, but a recovery in sales is expected as market demand resumes post-holiday and supported by policy measures [8] - The demand for medium and large buses has adjusted, while light buses have shown strong growth, indicating the company's adaptability and the robust demand in niche markets [8] - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost domestic bus sales, with the new subsidy standards for electric city buses and battery replacements providing additional growth momentum [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are maintained at 365 billion, 429 billion, and 499 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 40.6 billion, 46.3 billion, and 55.5 billion RMB, reflecting significant growth rates [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2022 was 21,799 million RMB, with projections of 27,042 million RMB for 2023, 36,481 million RMB for 2024, 42,920 million RMB for 2025, and 49,941 million RMB for 2026, showing a year-on-year growth of 24.05% in 2023 and 34.90% in 2024 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 759.14 million RMB in 2022 to 1,817.08 million RMB in 2023, and further to 4,061.99 million RMB in 2024, indicating a year-on-year increase of 139.36% in 2023 [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to rise from 0.34 RMB in 2022 to 0.82 RMB in 2023, reaching 1.83 RMB in 2024, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 76.41 to 31.92 [1][8]
宇通客车:春节影响1月产销短期波动,以旧换新政策托底销量修复可期-20250218